T-Roy

T-Roy

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CORONAVIRUS: Herd Immunity a Long Way Off

Experts say that somewhere between 60 and 80 percent of people would need to have antibodies for herd immunity to exist. And that assumes that antibodies confer some immunity against the disease.

TeeRoy's 2 Cents:

  • Early indications are that despite Sweden's lack of social distancing orders, well under 10 percent of people have antibodies -- and their death rate is higher than the U.S.'s.
  • Our best bet for saving lives is to hold the infection rate as low as possible until a vaccine or other treatment becomes widely available.
  • We're going to have to figure out how to do that without a complete shutdown for another year. 
  • If the mortality rate remains roughly the same, this means that New York would see another 60,000 deaths, at least.

Here's a splash of cold water -- the world is nowhere near reaching herd immunity against the coronavirus.

The New York Timesanalyzed surveys of antibody testing in various hotspots around the globe and found that relatively few people have been infected -- despite a global death toll of around 360,000.

New York City has the highest rate of positive antibody tests, around 20 percent. Assuming the tests to be accurate, that means one in five residents of the Big Apple have been infected with COVID-19. 

But other hotspots have even lower rates. In Madrid, Spain, just 11 percent of people have antibodies. And in Wuhan, China -- where the coronavirus originated -- just 10 percent have tested positive. 

Experts say that somewhere between 60 and 80 percent of people would need to have antibodies for herd immunity to exist. And that assumes that antibodies confer some immunity against the disease.


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